Measuring methane emissions: LCANZI responds to farming groups

LCANZI has written to the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, DairyNZ, Beef + Lamb NZ, Federated Farmers, and the Climate Change Commission, about the Climate Change Commission's review of New Zealand's methane targets.

New Zealand's current methane target aims to reduce biogenic methane to 24-47% below 2017 levels by 2050, including 10% below 2017 levels by 2030.

We endorse the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment's concerns about DairyNZ, Beef+ Lamb NZ, and the Federated Farmers' suggestion that the methane reduction target should be set on the basis of "no additional warming".

The farming groups have used a scientific study that they commissioned from Oxford and Cranfield universities to argue that the 2050 targets are too high. The study suggests that the heating caused by methane should be stabilised, but does not have to reduce below current heating levels. We have concerns with this research.

Reducing agricultural methane emissions is critical if New Zealand is to meet its Paris Agreement targets and meaningfully reduce its emissions.

As we point out in our letter, any attempt to amend New Zealand's methane targets in this way would likely be inconsistent with s 5T of the Climate Change Response Act 2002. This section requires a "significant change to the scientific understanding of climate change" to justify changes to the 2050 targets. The research commissioned by the farming groups does not present a "significant change" - the relationship between warming outcomes and emission pathways was well-understood through several reports before the Zero Carbon Amendment Act 2019 came into force.

In addition, the proposed "warming approach" would be inconsistent with IPCC global pathways that assume significant reductions in warming from methane. It would also be inconsistent with several of our international commitments, including the COP26 Glasgow Climate Pact, the Global Methane Pledge, the Paris Agreement, and our commitments under the recent EU Free Trade Agreement which obliges New Zealand to "effectively implement the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement".

It is important that New Zealand continues striving to meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement, and does not attempt to water them down through creative accounting. Under the Paris Agreement, New Zealand’s emission reduction targets must be progressive and reflect our “highest possible ambition”. The “warming approach” suggested by the farming lobby would not pass muster.

You can read our full letter here